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FinanceWorld Markets Review: 8th November 2023 – Bitcoin, Dollar, BigCommerce, S&P 500

Analyst predicts Bitcoin (BTC) to be significantly higher by the end of the year

Bitcoin (BTC) is predicted to be significantly higher by the end of the year, according to an analyst. The cryptocurrency's historical price performance has been a significant factor in its current cycle, with analysts predicting a series of bullish events. The potential approval of a Bitcoin ETF is a key event, as it aims to bridge the gap between traditional finance and the crypto domain. The upcoming Bitcoin halving in April, which reduces the reward for mining new blocks, has historically triggered price increases. The Federal Reserve's near-peak velocity of rate hikes could provide relief in a tight environment, encouraging risk-on behavior among investors.

of Bitcoin's recent price action reveals a potential bull flag formation, with immediate local resistance near the upper trendline. A break above this level could open the door to a retest of higher resistances. Support levels are etched into the recent lows from which Bitcoin rebounded, providing a safety net against potential downturns. These support zones will be crucial in maintaining the bullish structure of the current trend.

The dollar is experiencing increased demand ahead of the anticipated Powell speech.

The US dollar has climbed 0.2% to 105.587 in early European trade, following a week-long decline due to Federal Reserve speakers' dovish signals and weak monthly jobs report. The dollar index is now on track for a weekly gain, reversing last week's decline. Analysts at ING predict that Fed chief Jerome Powell will provide guidance on the central bank's future policy path.

Euro/USD fell 0.2% to 1.0677 ahead of the release of the eurozone retail sales data for September, which is expected to show an annual drop of 3.1%. German industrial production fell more than expected in September, further illustrating the darkening growth outlook in the eurozone. However, the International Monetary Fund said earlier Wednesday that the ECB should hold its key deposit rate close to its record high 4% level through all of next year to extinguish price pressures.

GBP/USD dropped 0.2% to 1.2275, retreating further from the seven-week high of 1.2428. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill stated that expectations for rate cuts from next summer looked reasonable.

The Australian dollar rebounds slightly, with AUD/USD rising 0.1% to 0.6443, its largest daily decline in about a month. USD/JPY rose 0.2% to 150.69, remaining well above the key 150 level as traders warily awaited potential intervention by the Japanese government to boost the yen. USD/CNY traded largely flat at 7.2790, with traders awaiting the release of the latest Chinese inflation data.

BigCommerce has announced a restructuring plan due to a slight miss in Q3 revenue.

BigCommerce, an e-commerce software provider, has reported a slight miss on Q3 revenue projections, generating $78 million instead of the expected $78.1 million. However, the Q4 revenue guidance of $81.8 million slightly exceeded market expectations. The company also reported a non-GAAP profit of $0.01 per share, an improvement from the $0.41 per share loss in Q3 FY2022. CEO Brent Bellm highlighted the company's progress towards long-term growth and in Q3, with a GAAP gross margin of 75.6% and a reduced cash burn of 37% YoY to $32.5 million. Despite a negative free cash flow of $32.5 million and a total cash burn of $44.3 million over the past year, BigCommerce remains optimistic about its future, with a market capitalization of $753.6 million and over $69.8 million in cash on hand. In response to the Q3 results, BigCommerce announced a restructuring plan, which will reduce its workforce by approximately 7%. This news led to a 6% drop in the company's stock price to $9.4 per share.

The Gamma Squeeze has experienced a loss of steam above $4,375, indicating potential future developments.

Yesterday's market was unusually volatile, with rates falling, the dollar rising, the VIX falling, and stocks rallying. This is the first time this disconnect has occurred in months. The dollar has been a reliable indicator for the VIX and credit spreads for some time, but not yesterday or the last two days. This suggests that either the dollar strength is due to fade, the VIX's declines are due to reverse, or something in the relationship is breaking down.

The real test will come over the next day or so, as either stocks will change course and head significantly lower, or the dollar is due to weaken by a lot. The area between 4,375 and 4,400 is a tough spot for the S&P 500, and with the call wall still at 4,400, it is likely to remain that way.

The gamma squeeze of last week is over, and now that we are in positive gamma, the market stabilizes and stalls. The options market seems to be in control at this point, and even if we get past 4,400, there is a huge amount of gamma at 4,450 to contain it.

Fed Chair Powell gave a speech today and then spoke again with Q&A on Thursday. The tone from a few Fed officials following the November FOMC seemed more hawkish than the way it was laid out by the media last week. Some media outlets are trying to point out that Powell steered people away from the dot plots because they decay over time, but that seemed obvious and more like common sense. If the message wasn't well received, we will hear about it very soon.

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