The Future of US Dollar
The Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) indicates whether an asset is overbought or oversold. Gold and silver are considered insurance against government abuse of the monetary system, and they can sit at 90s DSI for quite a while as the price stagnates or moves a bit higher. Silver is still undervalued, just over 85% from its all-time high of 50.
The dollar’s potential to crash is not to shy away from buying gold or silver, as all currencies are floating in a ship called the Titanic. The only lifeboats are the rising price of gold and silver against ALL currencies. The US dollar still has some military power behind it and the Fed intervention when needed. Despite being the world’s largest debtor nation, the US government and the Fed have been reducing their debt each month but small amounts. When the Fed has to buy everything under the sun again, which they will, their debt is added to the US National Debt, bringing us to over $40 trillion of debt owed.
The total market capitalization of the US stock market is $50.8 trillion. With higher inflation, higher interest rates, and future obligations like Social Security, Medicare, and other government subsidies, the government and Fed will keep printing more fiat dollars. As Richard Russell says, “Inflate or Die.” Death of the dollar is not an option as the government and Fed continue to print more fiat dollars.
The DSI for many of these currencies shows that a bounce in them could lead to a decline in the dollar. The Yen 10 DSI is currently low, while Japan is raising rates a hair. The Canadian dollar, Euro, Swiss franc, and British Pound are all DSIs for the dollar.
The Pound has fallen to a 4.5-month low against the GBP/USD due to a rise in UK GDP.
The British pound has fallen to a 4.5-month low as the UK economy posted a 0.1% gain in February, marking a second month of expansion after an upwardly revised gain of 0.3% in January. The UK’s manufacturing sector experienced an impressive rebound in March, with manufacturing production jumping 1.2% m/m, above the market estimate of 0.1%. However, the UK economy remains fragile, with services posting a weak gain of 0.1% m/m in March and construction output falling by 1.9%. The Bank of England remains cautious about rate cuts, while the US Federal Reserve is hawkish about rate cuts after surprisingly strong data in March.
The S&P 500 E-Mini has found support low.
The S&P 500 Emini went outside after testing below the April 4th bear breakout, which was likely to act as support. The Buy Signal bar was a small doji with a prominent tail above, which often indicates a potential market reversal. The odds favor a trading range more than a bear trend, and the bears have had few opportunities to buy at the moving average since January. The market will likely need to go sideways for longer to develop more selling pressure.
The daily chart is in a bull channel, meaning the odds favor the daily chart evolving into a trading range. The Bears want to get down to the January low, but they need more selling pressure. If the bears can create strong bear trend bars closing below the moving average, that will increase the odds of lower prices.
Emini is down 40 points in the overnight Globex session, as the market went sideways for most of the overnight session and broke to the downside during the early morning hours. Traders should assume that the open will have a lot of trading range price action, so most traders should wait for 6-21 bars unless they can trade with limited orders and make quick decisions.
There is a 50% chance that the initial breakout is in the wrong direction and the market will attempt to go the other way.
The bullish signal suggests that Bitcoin’s next stop may be at $80K, suggesting that potential trades should be made accordingly.
Bitcoin has started the week with a bullish tone, suggesting potential upside momentum. A breakout from the symmetrical triangle pattern could ignite fresh bullish sentiment. However, a potential buying opportunity might present itself in the form of a test of the symmetrical triangle’s lower range following the release of US CPI data. Bitcoin’s price has been fluctuating for almost a month, forming a symmetrical triangle pattern. Despite a brief drop on Friday due to employment data, the world’s largest cryptocurrency quickly rebounded after testing the triangle’s lower boundary and remained in demand over the weekend. Despite this, Bitcoin remains stuck in the resistance zone formed between March 25 and April 1, potentially triggering a backtest. Maintaining support at $69,500 for the rest of the week could accelerate bullish momentum by breaking the intermediate resistance at $71,500.
